Vladamir Putin Sick - Even if the disease is a poor explanation for the mistakes Vladimir Putin has made so far, it can inform the future (Getty Images)
Smoke hangs over Europe. Most of the heights are of ruined Ukrainian cities, destroyed by Russian artillery. However, part of it comes from the ongoing swirl of rumors about Vladimir Putin's health. If there is smoke, does fire necessarily follow? What does it gain to speculate on the dictator's health? What would his well-being say about his decision to invade Ukraine and his subsequent entry into the war? And what can it reveal about our beliefs?
Vladamir Putin Sick
Today's murmurings have two sources. The first is Putin's radically changed appearance. Five years ago, his face was thin and gray: past its prime, but still acceptable for photo shoots depicting his flawless manhood. This year's footage tells a different story: Now Putin's face is strangely swollen. The second is a meeting between the Russian leader and his Minister of Defense, Sergei Xoigu, on April 21. The footage, analyzed as if it were a missing Zapruder tape, appears to show Putin gripping the table in an apparent attempt to stay upright.
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Some believe that Putin's physical transformation is the result of over-commitment or botox, perhaps inspired by his friend Silvio Berlusconi. Others claim that this is just the natural aging process of a man who is now 70 years old. But the loudest voices undoubtedly belong to those who believe that Putin is seriously ill.
According to a Newsweek special report, US intelligence concluded that Putin had been treated for "advanced cancer" in April. His health appears to be a topic of active discussion within the Biden administration. The students at Shoigu's meeting are convinced that Putin has Parkinson's disease. An unnamed FSB officer claimed that Putin had been diagnosed with liver cancer and had only three years to live. Meanwhile, the head of Ukraine's defense intelligence, Kirillo Budanov, outdid them all, claiming that Putin had
Many claim that Putin's decision to invade was itself a sign of illness. With barely 100 days, the war has reached such a disastrous price - in blood, treasure and prestige - that it certainly cannot be the product of a sick mind, or a mind that no longer cares about the future ? May be. But the Kremlin's strategic mistakes can be much better explained by the fact that Putin has built a system in which blunt, fearless advice is a career-limiting step and sycophants advance.
In fact, it is impossible to make a firm judgment about Putin's health because there is no reliable information about the Kremlin. Remember that the vast majority of authoritative analysts overestimated Russia's military power before the invasion of Ukraine. Before that, key details about Putin's private life and regime were kept under wraps. Journalists and dissidents who try to shed light on the inner workings of the regime are being killed with impunity. Whatever reliable intelligence there was has largely evaporated as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's diplomatic isolation since the February 24 invasion.
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But serious analysts, no matter how close to power they are, should still prepare for a scenario where Putin is sick. Because? Because even if illness is a poor explanation for Putin's mistakes so far, it can inform the future.
In the short term, Kyiv and its allies cannot rule out the possibility that an ailing Putin will continue to make irrational decisions. Perhaps he will become more indifferent to the loss of Russian and Ukrainian lives. Or, knowing that he would not be alive in the other world, he could ignore the usual principles governing the use of nuclear weapons. It is difficult to deal with a madman, or a sick person who has nothing to lose.
Going forward, tentatively accepting the hypothesis that Putin is indeed ill will help the West prepare for the political reverberations that his death will have in Russia. Whether Putin dies in six months or three years or whether he takes life and power for another decade will have major ramifications for the kind of country Russia will be in a generation. The sooner he dies, the more disparate the military results in Ukraine and the politicians at home. The longer he stays, the more likely is the consolidation of his authoritarian political system, the continued isolation of Russia from the West and his search for invalid allies.
Honestly, a lot of people want Vladimir Putin dead. This stems in part from an understandable desire for revenge. But this desire reflects our lack of understanding or influence over how the war it started might end.
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Putin's health is a big factor in how the war plays out. Whether delivered by a killer gun or its maker, its demise will cause exultation and mayhem in equal measure. In the meantime, just as we must guard against misinformation regardless of its source, we must also be alert to delusion and motivated thinking. Beware of anyone who has seamlessly transitioned from amateur epidemiology to geopolitics to remote oncology.
What the two men share is a perception of the nature of the West today, as well as its origins.
A recent survey by the Lowe Institute suggests a generational gap for those with memories of the Cold War Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the construction site of the National Space Center in Moscow on February 27 Credit: AFP
It's all accidental, but there is growing evidence that Vladimir Putin may be suffering from a serious illness.
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At least five factors point to the suspicion that his terrible decision to invade Ukraine could not be strengthened by his mental state, the effects of Covid isolation or arrogance, but by a physical condition that prompted him to gamble for a quick win.
Side effects of steroids include an increased risk of infections, such as coughs and colds, and "mood and behavior changes."
"Sometimes, at higher doses, steroids can cause confusion or changes in thinking," according to Macmillan Cancer Support. "This can include having strange or frightening thoughts."
In November 2020, Putin suffered a prolonged coughing fit during a televised meeting with his finance minister. The footage was later edited and the Kremlin said it was "completely fine".
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And according to Fiona Hill, a former Russian expert at the British White House, Putin "doesn't look great" at the moment.
"His face was quite swollen," said Ms Hale, who has met Putin more than once. "We know he was complaining of back problems. Even if it wasn't worse, it could be that he was taking high doses. of steroids, or There could be something else.
People with weakened immune systems are more likely to develop severe cases of the coronavirus and other illnesses.
During a televised meeting, Putin's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, sat at the other end of an absurdly long table.
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At a meeting where he insulted Putin's spy chief, senior security officials had to sit in front of a giant marble room.
Covid cases have surged in Russia recently, but extraordinary efforts to keep Putin in a "bubble" go back several months.
Many who entered his presence were forced to quarantine in hotels for two weeks beforehand, including businessmen, politicians and employees.
There have also been reports of a tunnel leading to his office in which visitors are being sprayed with disinfectant.
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Meanwhile, Joe Biden, a decade older than him, has been checking out a relatively small table in the situation room with his advisers.
But, curiously, a few weeks ago he shook hands with unvaccinated Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and sat next to him.
Marco Rubio, the Republican senator, set up a bunny race for the weekend when he suggested that "something is wrong" with Putin.
Mr. Rubio is not some random Internet conspiracy thinker: He is the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee.
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“I wish I could share more,” Rubio said, “but right now, I can say it's very clear to many that something is wrong with Putin.
There are growing suggestions that if the United States had intelligence that Putin was ill, they should release him.
A former White House national security official told the US it should "make it personal" and release anything it has on Putin.
The French may also have doubts. The assessment of a French official, after the marathon meeting between Macron and Putin before the invasion, indicated something.
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The official said Putin "wasn't the same" when Macron met him two years ago. It was tougher, dogmatic and somehow "faded".
There was also no definitive answer to why Putin disappeared from public view for 10 days in 2015. At the time, speculation about a health scare was dismissed.
In November 2020, Professor Valery Solovey, a former historian at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said he was referring to the possibility that Putin may have Parkinson's disease and cancer.
As suggested by Mr. Putin
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